The data published in the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker showing a forecast of 0.0% for the UK's GDP growth indicates a potential stabilization in the economy after a period of contraction. This could be seen as a positive sign for the British Pound as it suggests that the economy may be on the path to recovery. However, the negative GDP growth in the previous quarter (-0.1%) and the high CPI rate (4.0% YoY) could still pose challenges for the currency.
In relation to other data, the US economy seems to be performing relatively well with strong nonfarm payrolls, low unemployment rate, and solid GDP growth. This could support the US Dollar against other currencies. The Eurozone, on the other hand, is facing challenges with negative GDP growth in Germany and moderate inflation. This could weigh on the Euro.
The effects on forex markets could see the GBP strengthening in the short term due to the forecasted GDP growth, but the long-term outlook may still be influenced by uncertainties surrounding Brexit and economic performance. The USD could remain strong against other currencies, especially those facing economic challenges like the Euro and the Yen.
In terms of stock and commodity markets, the positive economic data from the US could support stock prices, especially in sectors like manufacturing and services. Commodity prices may also benefit from a stronger US Dollar, although global economic uncertainties could still impact demand.
Central banks, such as the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, may take a cautious approach to monetary policy, especially considering the mixed economic data globally. The BoE may hold rates steady to assess the impact of Brexit, while the Fed could continue with gradual rate hikes to prevent overheating of the economy.
Overall, the economic data published, including the NIESR GDP forecast, suggest a mixed outlook for the global economy with potential implications for currency, stock, and commodity markets.
Currency sentiment: Neutral
Sentiment timeframe: Short to medium term